42 million Americans cast early midterm votes as of Oct 30

More than 42 million voters have already cast their ballots for the upcoming midterm elections.

Data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that current early turnout levels mirror the patterns seen in the 2018 cycle. Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the university, stated that enthusiasm appears to be higher among Democratic voters. He noted that it is possible to beat the 2018 turnout rate, which was the highest for midterms since 1914.

The participation numbers show a clear partisan split. Democrats currently account for 44 percent of the early votes, while Republicans represent about 31 percent. McDonald explained that registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are highly engaged at this stage, whereas registered Republicans are less so. He added that the early voting rate has increased for young voters and minorities this cycle.

McDonald described the current electorate as potentially the most diverse in U.S. midterm history. He pointed to high engagement levels among African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans, contrasting this with lower engagement among white voters. However, he cautioned that his model has limits because not all states require party registration or emphasize early voting.

States such as Maine, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska will likely have only a third of their votes cast early, making them different from states with high volumes of mail or in-person early voting. McDonald said Republicans are expected to close some of the gap on Election Day. Results will be announced after polls close on Tuesday, November 3.

The data suggests a strong start for the Democratic party in the early voting phase, but the final outcome remains dependent on voter behavior in the coming days.