Rosebank Oilfield: Backbenchers Back £500m Revenue Forecast

Labour backbenchers are urging Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey to leave the Rosebank oilfield decision to Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh. The MPs argue that cabinet pressure risks overturning a decision that Fahnbulleh is minded to make on environmental grounds. Sources indicate she is prepared to refuse permission for the field.

The dispute centers on the financial modeling of the project. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has included Rosebank tax revenues in its forecasts since 2019. Treasury officials state these projections assume a 14% annual decline in production if no new fields were developed. The estimated tax take from Rosebank is approximately £500m by the end of this parliament.

Healey has expressed support for the scheme, while some government insiders believe Burnham also favors approval. Burnham described the recently approved Jackdaw gasfield as a bridge to the future. He stated that using North Sea reserves supports a clean energy transition, a logic he applied to the Jackdaw decision.

Fahnbulleh’s aides circulated a memo to MPs asserting that the energy secretary is the sole decision maker. The memo clarifies that no other cabinet member sees the advice or plays a role in the quasi-judicial process. It notes that the OBR’s inclusion of Rosebank in forecasts is a separate matter from the ministerial decision.

Catherine Fookes, a member of the energy select committee, warned that approving Rosebank would damage the party’s green credentials. She said the leadership should listen to the view that this remains Fahnbulleh’s decision. Another MP described the Treasury’s approach as aggressive, suggesting the department is using revenue forecasts to influence the outcome.

Clive Lewis argued that claiming global climate leadership while approving new oilfields based on estimated tax receipts is contradictory. He noted that these figures are operator estimates rather than confirmed Treasury revenue. Areeba Hamid of Greenpeace UK added that approving new drilling leaves taxpayers liable for future decommissioning costs.

MPs anticipate a parliamentary rebellion over Rosebank, unlike the quiet acceptance shown for Jackdaw. Fookes noted that Jackdaw had a domestic consumption argument, whereas Rosebank presents a different environmental challenge. The government has not yet announced a final date for the Fahnbulleh decision.