Netanyahu Faces Election Stalemate That Could Allow Iran Strikes

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a minority government following the October 27 elections, creating a political vacuum that may allow for renewed strikes against Iran.

The election results gave Netanyahu a stronger showing than polls predicted, yet his bloc lacks the seats needed to form a standalone government. He must reach an agreement with Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, to avoid another round of voting. This deadlock leaves the door open for military action because the primary domestic political rival, Eisenkot, is not currently in a position to block a war decision.

In recent weeks, Netanyahu considered a new campaign against Tehran but was restrained by opposition from US President Donald Trump and Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Zamir opposed a pre-election strike to prevent Iranian retaliation from disrupting voting and to avoid the appearance of aiding Netanyahu’s electoral chances. Trump opposed a strike before the US midterm elections on November 3, as the ongoing Iran conflict is currently hurting his party’s poll numbers.

The timeline for forming a new government is tight. Avigdor Liberman, leader of the Yisrael Beytenu party, will not begin serious coalition negotiations until Friday, when final results are confirmed. He must then choose between partnering with Israeli-Arab parties, Netanyahu, or calling a second election. These negotiations typically take weeks or months, a duration that far exceeds the four-day window between Friday and the US midterms. Consequently, Netanyahu would be politically free to attack if Trump initiates or permits the move.

Zamir remains prepared to act only under specific conditions, such as an imminent Iranian strike or full US offensive and defensive backing. He does not view Tehran as having significantly rebuilt its nuclear or ballistic missile capabilities, which were set back by strikes in early and June 2026. Thus, the Chief of Staff is not rushing toward a new war.

Trump’s decision is the main variable. He has hinted at resuming strikes after the midterms and wants Israel involved again. A post-midterm attack could shift national attention to the war, potentially complicating Eisenkot’s efforts to unify his coalition. If Iran remains resistant to economic pressure or nuclear deals, a third round of conflict could become likely by late November.

Netanyahu would need to justify a third conflict during coalition talks, a difficult task given that previous strikes reduced Iran’s threats. He would have to present concrete evidence of renewed danger to maintain public support for the war.