Israeli election leaves Netanyahu and Eisenkot in political stalemate

Israel’s election results created a political deadlock that leaves neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot with a clear path to power. The final tallies announced Friday show that opposition parties hold more seats than Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc, yet the opposition cannot command a governing majority without support from predominantly Arab parties. Eisenkot’s allies ruled out that support during the campaign, leaving both leaders in a difficult position as they attempt to assemble a government. Netanyahu’s Likud party secured the most votes, winning 27 seats, but his coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties lost the majority it previously held. The bloc won a combined 53 seats, while at least 61 are required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The next phase involves consultations between Israel’s president and the leaders of every party elected to parliament. Each party will recommend a candidate to the president, who is not required to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, the president selects the candidate considered most likely to build a governing coalition. That candidate has 28 days to secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If the effort fails, the president may grant another candidate an opportunity to form a government. This process could take weeks, months, or end without anyone assembling a majority.

Based on the election results, Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the largest number of recommendations from newly elected lawmakers. However, his political inexperience and his bloc’s seat count of 48 present challenges. If his bloc allies with Arab-led parties, which won 19 seats, they would form a majority. But Eisenkot has stated that Arab parties’ positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Netanyahu faces a similar obstacle, as his traditional coalition partners do not have enough seats to return him to power without additional support.

Several possible outcomes exist for resolving the stalemate. One option is a unity government bringing together Netanyahu and Eisenkot, a path that some reports suggest President Trump may favor. Such a coalition would likely include moderate parties and could facilitate cooperation with the Trump administration on regional priorities. However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. Another possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties, which would command a majority of more than 67 seats. This remains unlikely due to campaign promises. A third option is another election, which President Isaac Herzog has urged leaders to avoid after the high turnout in the recent vote. A fourth option involves lawmakers defecting from one bloc to the other, though the numbers required make this difficult.

During the stalemate, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could advance legislation before a new government is formed. Eisenkot’s bloc is considering replacing the speaker of the Knesset and passing a commission of inquiry into the failures preceding the October 7, 2023, attack. Allies of Eisenkot may also try to reverse legislation that critics say weakened democratic institutions. These moves would allow opponents to exercise power in parliament while negotiations continue. A renewed war with Iran could also affect the political landscape, as Netanyahu stated that Israel must complete its mission against the country. Analysts suggest that a conflict could increase pressure on Eisenkot to enter an emergency unity government, similar to the dynamic following the October 7 attack.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst, noted that Netanyahu has a political incentive to renew fighting during the negotiation period. He said, "Netanyahu definitely has an incentive to go to war," explaining that an emergency would mount pressure on Eisenkot to form a unity government. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu on election night not to use Israel’s security for political needs. The next few days will see the president consulting with party leaders to determine who receives the first opportunity to form a coalition.