Likud Divided on Tuesday Vote

Likud leadership remains split on the party’s prospects for the upcoming Israeli election, with internal divisions sharpening on Monday, the day before voters cast their ballots. While some officials express confidence in victory, others express anxiety over aggressive mobilization efforts by the opposition.

Optimists within the party point to forecasts from Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud’s internal polling data. One Likud source described the internal atmosphere as polarized. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source stated. The source characterized the stakes regarding Filber’s predictions by saying, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other."

A primary concern for the party involves financial backing for rival turnout initiatives. Sources indicated that various organizations and nonprofits are injecting large sums of money into operations designed to increase voter participation against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. These activities, which party insiders said were not directly funded by the parties, included social media campaigns, physical signage, and field events. Specific efforts targeted Arab voters with transportation services and encouraged Israelis residing abroad to travel home to vote. One source labeled the activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing the groups provide a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on video limits and public resource use while ignoring these external organizations, though sources provided no documentation for the funding amounts or legal violations.

In preparation for Tuesday, Likud is organizing a substantial ground operation. The strategy focuses on preventing right-wing voters from shifting to smaller parties. Negotiations to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to withdraw his People of Israel party from the race failed, even after discussions involving Rabbi Eli Sadan. Sadan later issued a statement supporting Winter. Likud is also engaging with supporters of other right-wing tickets, including the joint list of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already exited the race following talks that included discussions on allowing the party to name a deputy minister.

Israeli voters will head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27. The date allows the current government to complete its full term. A survey released days before the election found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.