Connecticut's 2026 Gubernatorial Race Sees Sharp Drop in Outside Spending

Outside groups have spent a fraction of the money they used in the previous cycle to influence Connecticut's top election contest. According to campaign spending reports, independent expenditures for the 2026 governor's race have dropped dramatically compared to the 2022 election. In that prior contest, outside groups spent nearly $6.5 million to oppose the reelection of Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont. They spent another $2.7 million to thwart Republican nominee Bob Stefanowski.

Gary Rose, a professor and scholar-in-residence at Sacred Heart University, noted that the drop-off in 2026 spending is noticeable. He has studied state and national politics for decades. Two independent polls released this month show Lamont leading his opponent, Greenwich state Sen. Ryan Fazio, by 20 and 22 percentage points respectively among likely voters.

Through Oct. 21, independent expenditures reported to the State Elections Enforcement Commission totaled approximately $866,870. This figure includes nearly $198,470 in incurred but unpaid expenditures. The largest recent independent expenditure in the gubernatorial race was a $164,000 digital ad buy for Fazio by the group Hands Off Our Schools on Oct. 20. The Connecticut Republican Party spent $10,000 opposing Lamont on Oct. 15. The first reported independent expenditure supporting Lamont was a $10,000 digital ad buy on Oct. 9.

Most of the independent spending in the 2026 cycle targets contests for the 187-seat General Assembly, which the Democratic Party currently controls. A three-way state Senate primary in the 2nd District drew the highest level of outside spending for a legislative race so far this cycle. Two independent groups spent $104,460 to support state Rep. Maryam Khan and oppose her primary rivals.

Khan won the Democratic nomination in the Aug. 11 primary with 39.6% of the vote. Her opponents, state Sen. Douglas McCrory and Ayana Taylor, received 28.3% and 32.1% of the vote respectively. The race attracted attention due to state and federal investigations into grant awards directed by McCrory to a nonprofit organization. The FBI is investigating his role in delivering the funds, though McCrory has denied any wrongdoing.

Fazio qualified for an $18 million grant from the Citizens' Election Program to publicly fund his campaign. He received the full grant on July 15 after the commission dismissed a complaint alleging illegal coordination with Hands Off Our Schools. Lamont has spent $15.9 million in personal funds on his campaign, including $5.2 million in the last fundraising quarter.

Organization expenditures, which are not considered contributions under state law, also played a role in the 2026 cycle. Through Oct. 21, these expenditures totaled $366,180. Such spending allows state parties and legislative caucuses to support candidates without triggering public financing limits.